State of the Union: Obama Pushes Job Creation

Feb 12, 2013 5:40pm

Tonight President Obama will gives his annual assessment to the nation of the State of the Union at 9 p.m., followed by a Republican response from Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Tea Party response from Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. The president has said he will focus on the economy, and there are seven things we’re pretty certain he will say.

Refresh here for updates and fact checks throughout the night.

Tune in to ABCNews.com for livestreaming coverage of the 2013 State of the Union Address. ABC State of the Union coverage starts at 8:50 p.m.

All times are in Eastern Standard Time.

9:53 p.m. – What Would It Mean to Increase the Minimum Wage?

ABC’s Shushannah Walshe and Sarah Parnass report:

President Obama called for an increase of the federal minimum wage in his address tonight from $7.25 an hour to $9.00 an hour by 2015. It’s the first time as president Obama has proposed raising the minimum wage, but as a candidate in 2008 he promised to raise it to $9.50 by 2011. The last time it was raised was in 2009 when it increased from $6.55 to $7.25 an hour where it has stayed since.

It was the last step of a three part increase approved by Congress in 2007 and it translates to $15,080 a year for a full time worker. Before 2007, the minimum wage remained at $5.15 per hour for ten years. There have been calls consistently for the minimum wage to be raised and currently there are campaigns in New York, Maryland, Connecticut, New Mexico amongst others to lobby at the state level for an increase in the state minimum wage.

Washington is the only state with a minimum wage of $9 or more. Seven other states and the District of Columbia have a minimum wage of $8 or more. So for most states it would mean at least a $1 increase per hour for all workers at the lowest level of the pay scale.

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9:49 p.m. – Obama Urges House to Pass Violence Against Women Act

In his address, President Obama praised Vice President Joe Biden for his role in putting together the original Violence Against Woman Act and urged the House to pass the bill.

That legislation was approved in the Senate earlier today.

Univision’s Emily DeRuy reports on why this act – once considered relatively uncontroversial – is by no means guaranteed to pass. Read more from DeRuy here.

9:45 p.m. – Obama Wants Pre-K for All

ABC’s Shushannah Walshe reports:

Obama called for a new program to support state efforts to increase access for all four-year-olds to quality preschool education. The National Institute for Early Education Research’s most recent report in 2011 on the State of Preschool said funding for pre-K “decreased by almost $60 million in 2010-2011 when adjusted for inflation, despite the use of $127 million in funds from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).”

The report said it was the “second year of decline” and “in some states, the declines in 2010-2011 have been compounded by cuts in 2011-2012—and further cuts loom for 2012-2013. This threatens to undo much of the progress some states have made.”

The report says these cuts compounded with demand for high-quality pre-K means “the nation is experiencing a crisis in quality.”

While 28 percent of 4-year-olds were enrolled in early childhood education programs in 2011, up from 27 percent in 2010 average state spending per child enrolled was $4,151 in 2011, a more than $700 drop from 2002, the report states.

Opponents of universal pre-K see it as just another example of wasteful government spending while the national deficit continues to swell.

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9:40 p.m. – Obama Repeats Infrastructure Pitch

ABC’s Sarah Parnass reports:

If it feels like you’ve heard Obama’s call for infrastructure jobs before, that’s probably because you have.

Tonight, President Obama proposed a program he called “Fix-It-First” “to put people to work as soon as possible on our most urgent repairs, like the nearly 70,000 structurally deficient bridges across the country.”

“And to make sure taxpayers don’t shoulder the whole burden, I’m also proposing a Partnership to Rebuild America that attracts private capital to upgrade what our businesses need most: modern ports to move our goods; modern pipelines to withstand a storm; modern schools worthy of our children,” Obama said. “Let’s prove that there is no better place to do business than the United States of America. And let’s start right away.”

In September of 2011, Obama told a crowd in Detroit, Mich. there were roads and bridges in the U.S. “that need rebuilding.”

“We’ve got private companies with the equipment and the manpower to do the building,” Obama said that Labor Day. “We’ve got more than 1 million unemployed construction workers ready to get dirty right now.”

Even then it was a tired refrain.

At that time ABC’s Devin Dwyer reported the president first presented a similar plan for jobs in infrastructure in 2010.

Read more on that $50-billion proposal here.

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9:36 p.m. – Palin Punts

While President Obama discussed his plans for wind energy and slowing climate change, former GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin asked his supporters if they had “#OBuyersRemorse?”

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9:33 p.m. – A Lack of Enthusiasm for SOTU

ABC’s Chris Good reports:

Not everyone likes State of the Union addresses. Count newly minted GOP Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., among the less enthused.

“I don’t like them when Republicans give them,” the former congressman told ABC on his way into the chamber.

Asked how many times he expected to clap tonight, Flake wouldn’t say.

“The first time I attended one with President Bush, [former GOP congressman and current Indiana Gov.] Mike Pence and I were sitting next to each other, and [Bush] was talking about No Child Left Behind or something, and he leaned over and said, ‘Just cause I’m a-clappin for it doesn’t mean I’m a-votin for it,’” Flake recounted.

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9:29 p.m. – Obama Fights Back on Budget

“Deficit reduction alone is not an economic plan,” President Obama said tonight shortly before 9:30 p.m.

In the past few weeks, conservatives have been urging the president to put forward a plan for a balanced budget.

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9:28 p.m. – Secretary of State ‘Having a Great Time’

ABC’s Chris Good reports:

John Kerry seems to be having a grand old time at the State Department.

“It’s great–I’m having a great time,” Kerry said of his new job, pausing _very_ briefly on his way into an ante-room outside the House chamber before President Obama’s State of the Union address.

“I’m having fun,” he said.

Kerry quickly disappeared into the room with his wife.

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9:09 p.m. – Vice President Four-Eyes>

ABC’s Arlette Saenz reports:

Did you notice the new look on VP Joe Biden tonight? The vice president is wearing glasses because he scratched his eye with a contact lens, a White House aide says.

He wore the glasses yesterday at the roundtable on gun safety in Philadelphia. Biden does not wear his glasses at major events very often.

9:05 p.m. – State of the Union: Who’s On the Sidelines?

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8:38 p.m. – Scalia Calls SOTU a ‘Rather Silly Affair’

ABC’s Ariane de Vogue reports Justice Scalia didn’t hold back tonight when asked during a speaking engagement why he hasn’t attended a State of the Union address for some 16 years.

“It has turned into a childish spectacle,” he said. “I do not want to be there to lend dignity to it.”

Scalia said the event “has become a very political event” that is filled with applause lines. He said it’s a “rather silly affair”.

It is not the first time Scalia has expressed his doubts about the State of the Union.

He added he was unaware when he agreed to speak that tonight’s event would conflict with President Obama’s speech.

“I didn’t set this up just to upstage the president,” he joked.

Scalia spoke to an audience at George Washington University in an event sponsored by The Smithsonian Associates. He was interviewed by NPR’s Nina Totenberg.

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8:27 p.m. – 45 Gun Violence Victims to Attend

ABC’s John Parkinson reports Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer is bringing two guests, pushing the total to 45 guests who are victims or related to victims of gun violence.

Congressman Hoyer invited Patricia Bell and Sabrina Worthington, the mother and sister of Maryland State Trooper Wesley Brown, a young officer who was tragically shot and killed while working an off-duty security detail at a restaurant in Forestville, Md., in 2010.

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8:20 p.m. – Sec. Chu to Be Designated Survivor

ABC’s Devin Dwyer reports Energy Secretary Steven Chu has been designated to not attend the State of the Union address at the Capitol this evening, per the White House.

He is the “designated survivor” in the event of a catastrophic occurrence tonight. He will watch the speech from an undisclosed location.

Earlier this month Chu announced that he would step down from his cabinet post and return to California.

He then proved that politicians can take a joke, ABC’s Zach Wolf reports, when he responded to an Onion parody in which he was portrayed as waking up hung over, next to a solar panel.

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7:50 p.m. – What to Watch Tonight

ABC’s Rick Klein ticks off the five things to look out for during Obama’s address tonight.

From gun violence to Obama’s bread and butter; and from marching orders for members of Congress to a sneak-peek of 2016.

Read the rest from Rick here.

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7:37 p.m. – Americans for Prosperity Prez Gives SOTU Pre-buttal

Tim Phillips, president of the Koch Brothers-funded conservative group, Americans For Prosperity, went after Obama this evening for excerpts of his remarks released ahead of the State of the Union address that promised not to increase the deficit.

“Much has changed in the last four years; the President has apparently abandoned his original promise of cutting the deficit in half, and is now promising to not raise the deficit. This is hardly reassuring given the past four years of trillion dollar deficits, and certainly doesn’t even hint at actually reducing runaway government spending,” Phillips said in a statement e-mailed to ABC News. “If we ever hope to get the economy going again, we need serious spending cuts to end these job-killing deficits. Promises to not make the problem worse just aren’t going to cut it.”

A popular Tea Party tweeter also wasn’t buying it.

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7:11 p.m.: – Ted Nugent: ‘Gun Control is What Every Murderer Loves’

(Image Credit: Randy Snyder/Getty Images)

ABC Radio’s Steve Portnoy reports:

Donning a camouflage cowboy hat and jeans, Nugent comes to the Capitol tonight at the invitation of Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Texas.

“[Stockman] knew that the State of the Union would be stacked with pawns, with friends of the president, and a lot of props to further the president’s anti-American agenda,” Nugent told ABC News in Stockman’s office Tuesday, explaining he accepted the invitation “to counter the stacked deck.”

Nugent said he sympathizes with the victims of gun violence who he’ll be joining in the House visitor’s gallery, some of whom earlier Tuesday tearfully urged congress to act.

“Our hearts are broken every time there’s a victim of violent crime in this country,” Nugent said. But, he argues, the overwhelming majority of violent crimes in the US “are committed by violent criminals let out of their cages.”

He excoriated the president and other administration officials for suggesting that they have a solution to the country’s gun violence problem, accusing them of incompetence.

“Somehow the gun-running attorney general and the Chicago ACORN community organizer come from an area where it’s the murder capital. Their dream of a ‘gun-free zone’ already exists, and there’s more murders in those gun-free zones than in any of the gun-infested territories that I hang out in.”

Nugent says further measures to curb the sale of certain types of guns, or high capacity magazines, simply won’t work.

“It is a lie, it is a scam, it is counterproductive. Gun control is what every murderer loves, because then he can murder without anyone shooting back. How dare you want more Chicagoes when you can have more Wacos?”

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6:58 p.m.: – Rubio Records Spanish State of the Union Rebuttal

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6:40 p.m. – The Right Thing to Do

Back in June, ABC’s Jilian Fama took a look at one of President Obama’s favorite phrases: “Do the right thing.”

Doing the right thing seems to be hard for everyone, except President Obama. He always seems to know the “right thing to do.” Indeed, he uses his presidential remarks to instruct the American people on the right thing to do over and over again.

At the NALEO conference June 22, Obama touted that passing health care legislation was the “right thing to do.” He issued a statement claiming “after a century of trying, we finally passed reform that will make health care affordable and available for every American. “Then, as if once weren’t enough,  he joyously declared three times, “That was the right thing to do. That was the right thing to do. That was the right thing to do.”

Read more from Fama here.

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6:30 p.m. – 8 State of the Union Promises Obama Made 

ABC’s Chris Good takes a look at past State of the Union speeches and makes note of whether Obama kept the vows he made to the nation.

1. Cut the Deficit in Half. Obama in 2009: “Yesterday, I held a fiscal summit where I pledged to cut the deficit in half by the end of my first term in office.”

Did it happen? 

No. In 2009, the Office of Management and Budget estimated a deficit of $1.4 trillion. In 2013, it projects a deficit of $900 billion.

Read the rest from Good here.

6:01 p.m. – Rand Paul to Tell Dems and GOP to Stop ‘Protecting Their Sacred Cows’

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., previewed his response to the president’s speech hours before Obama was scheduled to take the podium with two excerpts on Facebook.

His first focused on immigration reform:

“We are the party that embraces hard work and ingenuity, therefore we must be the party that embraces the immigrant who wants to come to America for a better future. We must be the party who sees immigrants as assets, not liabilities. We must be the party that says, ‘If you want to work, if you want to become an American, we welcome you.”

His second attacked his colleagues’ spending habits:

“Both parties have been guilty of spending too much, of protecting their sacred cows, of backroom deals in which everyone up here wins, but every taxpayer loses. It is time for a new bipartisan consensus. It is time Democrats admit that not every dollar spent on domestic programs is sacred. And it is time Republicans realize that military spending is not immune to waste and fraud.”

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5:08 p.m. – Victims of Gun Violence Wear Ribbon with Newtown Colors

(Image Credit: John Parkinson/ABC News)

ABC’s John Parkinson reports at least 40 victims of gun violence plan to attend tonight’s speech in Washington. They won’t likely be sitting together, but they will be distinguishable by the green and silver ribbons handed out to them by Rep. Jim Langevin, D-R.I., staff. Green and silver are the colors of Newtown High School.

Read more about Rep. Langevin’s SOTU plan here.

At 5:45 p.m. Parkinson reports there are three more victims of gun violence now expected to attend, bringing the total number to 43.

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5:01 p.m. - Tune in to ABCNews.com/live at 9 p.m. for the 2013 State of the Union Address.

And in the meantime, brush up on what to watch for below:

Obama Will Hasten Afghanistan Drawdown – Halve American Troops in One Year -

A faster pace than expected –  http://abcn.ws/VdqQTW (Karl and Martinez)

7 Things Obama Always Says at #SOTU -
1.      Education: Let’s improve it!
2.     ’Clean Energy.’
3.     Some Kind of Tax Credit.
4.     Shrink Our ‘Deficit of Trust.’
5.     America, and Specific Americans, Are the Best.
6.     Investment.
7.      China, India, and Germany.

More on that, with citations and explanations from Chris Good – http://abcn.ws/VSE8lU

Jon Karl’s Preview -

In contrast to his inaugural address, President Obama’s State of the Union speech will focus primarily on jobs and the economy, outlining new initiatives on manufacturing, education, clean energy and infrastructure. http://abcn.ws/XHH1rb

Boehner – Obama Lacks ‘The Guts’ to Make Tough Choices -

A feisty House Speaker John Boehner (who will sit behind President Obama tonight) said this morning that he doesn’t believe President Obama “has the guts” to make the tough choices to address the government’s mounting deficit problem. http://abcn.ws/WiwHGI (Jon Karl)

The Audience – Gun Rights Advocates vs. Ted Nugent -

Keep an eye out for gun control advocates wearing green ribbons and, wearing a goatee and maybe a cowboy hat, gun rights advocate Ted Nugent, who will be in attendance – http://bit.ly/XyWRT9

Marco Rubio SOTU Response: Latin Symbol for GOP -

Delivering the GOP response to the president’s State of the Union address tonight, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., becomes the face of the Republican Party. http://abcn.ws/12JAt0V (Jim Avila)

More on “The Rubio Factor” from Fusion’s Jordan Fabian – http://abcn.ws/X5V5tt

Rubio’s Competition -

Cliff’s Notes on the last 4 Republican responders – Bobby Jindal, Bob McDonnell, Mitch Daniels and Paul Ryan – http://abcn.ws/Y77YTm

The Senate Passed the Violence Against Women Act Today -

Will the House follow suit? – From Fusion’s Emily DeRuy – A bill aimed at preventing domestic violence might sound reasonably uncontroversial, but House Republicans have voiced their opposition to some of the provisions, including one that would allow American Indian authorities to prosecute non-American Indians in tribal courts. The original 1994 act expired in 2011 and a divided Congress failed to reauthorize it last year. Republicans, reeling from a poor performance with women and minorities during the November election, have been more receptive this time around. The bill would grant more than $650 million over five years to states and local governments to provide things like transitional housing and legal assistance to victims. The hang-up is in the details of the bill. http://abcn.ws/Wj2CXw

The State of the Union is…
“…second opportunity for the president to … talk to the 48 or 9 percent of the people that didn’t support him.” http://abcn.ws/VdUGaP (Tom Cole)
“…going to have to focus on public education http://abcn.ws/YcNsRL  (Michelle Rhee)
“…in a difficult state for working class families…” – http://abcn.ws/XHcvh3 (Keith Ellison)
“…still pretty bad.” – http://abcn.ws/TKC42w (Paul Krugman)
“mixed.” http://abcn.ws/XHcvh3

How’s the Speech? ‘We’ll Find Out Tonight,’ Obama Says -

Taking a break from speech prep this afternoon, President Obama sounded confident about his State of the Union address but offered reporters little in the way of a preview. http://abcn.ws/VRbAhO  (Mary Bruce)

#SOTU Pulse Check – ABC Poll Shows Americans Unhappy With System Overall, But Obama’s Policies Beat Out GOP’s -

As politicians ponder the state of the union, the union’s looking back at the state of politics. And it’s none too thrilled. http://abcn.ws/WYGW2Y (Greg Holyk poll)

Obama to Announce 34,000 Troop Afghanistan Drawdown This Year -

President Obama will announce at Tuesday night’s State of the Union address that 34,000 troops – more than half of those currently serving in the combat region – will be back from Afghanistan a year from tonight, according to a source familiar with the speech. http://abcn.ws/VdqQTX

Gun Violence Victims Offer Opposing Views on Solutions in Senate Hearing-

Two people who lost family members to gun violence offered a Senate Judiciary subcommittee opposite positions today on the best way to solve the problem, one saying if she’d been able to carry a gun legally she could have stopped the shooter while the other said more restrictions are needed to keep guns out of criminals’ hands.http://abcn.ws/VSSsuJ (Arlette Saenz)

Proposed Constitutional Amendment Claims Money Is Not Speech -

Corporations, like people, have a constitutional right to spend money on U.S. elections. That’s what the U.S. Supreme Court decided in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission in 2010.http://abcn.ws/WHaTXb (Jilian Fama)

Changes In the Constitution Experts Would Like to Make -

The Constitution has held the United States government together for more than 200 years with remarkably few changes – there have been only 27 ratified amendments in part because it is such a difficult process.  http://abcn.ws/X52BET  (Alisa Wiersema)

State Of The Union: Guns, Jobs, #SOTU (The Note): The State of the Union is…

… all over the map. http://abcn.ws/Y6EwNc (Michael Falcone)

‘The State of the Union is…’ According to Rep. Tom Cole & Nicolle Wallace -

“The state of the union is the second opportunity for the president to do what he didn’t do in the inaugural address – that’s talk to the 48 or 9 percent of the people that didn’t support him.” http://abcn.ws/12b95Jn (Arlette Saenz)

Paralyzed Rep. to Showcase Gun Victims at State of the Union -

Rep. Jim Langevin smiles in his congressional office as he confidently demonstrates the robotics of his wheelchair, popping upright on the front two wheels of his iBOT 4000 to bring himself eye-to-eye with ABC News’ chief White House correspondent Jonathan Karl. http://abcn.ws/U9JUmN (John Parkinson)

Anti-’Amnesty’ Activists Prepared for Immigration Fight -

The forces that helped to bring down a proposed sweeping overhaul of the U.S. immigration system in 2007 are quietly mobilizing to do the same again. http://abcn.ws/XFKYg9 (Devin Dwyer)

2013 State of the Union: What Has Changed Since 2012?

In these new circumstances his rhetoric is likely to change but the topics won’t.  http://abcn.ws/11DEN2C (Sarah Parnass)

David Walker SOTU OpEd -

The current state of the union is mixed. While we are a great country, the largest economy, and the world’s leading democracy, we face serious challenges that threaten our collective future.  http://abcn.ws/X5299I (David Walker)

Curated by ABC’s Z. Byron Wolf and Sarah Parnass

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Pope's sudden resignation sends shockwaves through Church

VATICAN CITY (Reuters) - Pope Benedict stunned the Roman Catholic Church on Monday when he announced he would stand down, the first pope to do so in 700 years, saying he no longer had the mental and physical strength to carry on.

Church officials tried to relay a climate of calm confidence in the running of a 2,000-year-old institution, but the decision could lead to uncertainty in a Church already besieged by scandal for covering up sexual abuse of children by priests.

The soft-spoken German, who always maintained that he never wanted to be pope, was an uncompromising conservative on social and theological issues, fighting what he regarded as the increasing secularization of society.

It remains to be seen whether his successor will continue such battles or do more to bend with the times.

Despite his firm opposition to tolerance of homosexual acts, his eight year reign saw gay marriage accepted in many countries. He has staunchly resisted allowing women to be ordained as priests, and opposed embryonic stem cell research, although he retreated slightly from the position that condoms could never be used to fight AIDS.

He repeatedly apologized for the Church's failure to root out child abuse by priests, but critics said he did too little and the efforts failed to stop a rapid decline in Church attendance in the West, especially in his native Europe.

In addition to child sexual abuse crises, his papacy saw the Church rocked by Muslim anger after he compared Islam to violence. Jews were upset over rehabilitation of a Holocaust denier. During a scandal over the Church's business dealings, his butler was accused of leaking his private papers.

In an announcement read to cardinals in Latin, the universal language of the Church, the 85-year-old said: "Well aware of the seriousness of this act, with full freedom I declare that I renounce the ministry of Bishop of Rome, Successor of St Peter ...

"As from 28 February 2013, at 20:00 hours (1900 GMT) the See of Rome, the See of St. Peter will be vacant and a conclave to elect the new Supreme Pontiff will have to be convoked by those whose competence it is."

POPE DOESN'T FEAR SCHISM

Benedict is expected to go into isolation for at least a while after his resignation. Vatican spokesman Father Federico Lombardi said Benedict did not intend to influence the decision of the cardinals in a secret conclave to elect a successor.

A new leader of the world's 1.2 billion Roman Catholics could be elected as soon as Palm Sunday, on March 24, and be ready to take over by Easter a week later, Lombardi said.

Several popes in the past, including Benedict's predecessor John Paul, have refrained from stepping down over their health, because of the division that could be caused by having an "ex-pope" and a reigning pope alive at the same time.

Lombardi said the pope did not fear a possible "schism", with Catholics owing allegiances to a past and present pope in case of differences on Church teachings.

He indicated the complex machinery of the process to elect a new pope would move quickly because the Vatican would not have to wait until after the elaborate funeral services for a pope.

It is not clear if Benedict will have a public life after he resigns. Lombardi said Benedict would first go to the papal summer residence south of Rome and then move into a cloistered convent inside the Vatican walls.

The resignation means that cardinals from around the world will begin arriving in Rome in March and after preliminary meetings, lock themselves in a secret conclave and elect the new pope from among themselves in votes in the Sistine Chapel.

There has been growing pressure on the Church for it to choose a pope from the developing world to better reflect where most Catholics live and where the Church is growing.

"It could be time for a black pope, or a yellow one, or a red one, or a Latin American," said Guatemala's Archbishop Oscar Julio Vian Morales.

The cardinals may also want a younger man. John Paul was 58 when he was elected in 1978. Benedict was 20 years older.

"We have had two intellectuals in a row, two academics, perhaps it is time for a diplomat," said Father Tom Reese, senior fellow at the Woodstock Theological Center at Georgetown University. "Rather than electing the smartest man in the room, they should elect the man who will listen to all the other smart people in the Church."

Liberals have already begun calling for a pope that would be more open to reform.

"The current system remains an 'old boy's club' and does not allow for women's voices to participate in the decision of the next leader of our Church," said the Women's Ordination Conference, a group that wants women to be able to be priests.

"GREAT COURAGE"

The last pope to resign willingly was Celestine V in 1294 after reigning for only five months, his resignation was known as "the great refusal" and was condemned by the poet Dante in the "Divine Comedy". Gregory XII reluctantly abdicated in 1415 to end a dispute with a rival claimant to the papacy.

Lombardi said Benedict's stepping aside showed "great courage". He ruled out any specific illness or depression and said the decision was made in the last few months "without outside pressure". But the decision was not without controversy.

"This is disconcerting, he is leaving his flock," said Alessandra Mussolini, a parliamentarian who is granddaughter of Italy's wartime dictator. "The pope is not any man. He is the vicar of Christ. He should stay on to the end, go ahead and bear his cross to the end. This is a huge sign of world destabilization that will weaken the Church."

Cardinal Stanislaw Dziwisz, secretary to the late Pope John Paul, said the former pope had stayed on despite failing health for the last decade of his life as he believed "you cannot come down from the cross."

While the pope had slowed down recently - he started using a cane and a wheeled platform to take him up the long aisle in St Peter's Square - he had given no hint recently that he was considering such a dramatic decision.

Elected in 2005 to succeed the enormously popular John Paul, Benedict never appeared to feel comfortable in the job.

"MIND AND BODY"

In his announcement, the pope told the cardinals that in order to govern "... both strength of mind and body are necessary, strength which in the last few months, has deteriorated in me to the extent that I have had to recognize my incapacity to adequately fulfill the ministry entrusted to me."

Before he was elected pope, the former Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger was known as "God's rottweiler" for his stern stand on theological issues. After a few months, he showed a milder side but he never drew the kind of adulation that had marked the 27-year papacy of his predecessor John Paul.

U.S. President Barack Obama extended prayers to Benedict and best wishes to those who would choose his successor.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the pope's decision must be respected if he feels he is too weak to carry out his duties. British Prime Minister David Cameron said: "He will be missed as a spiritual leader to millions."

The Archbishop of Canterbury, leader of the worldwide Anglican communion, said he had learned of the pope's decision with a heavy heart but complete understanding.

CHEERS AND SCANDAL

Elected to the papacy on April 19, 2005, Benedict ruled over a slower-paced, more cerebral and less impulsive Vatican.

But while conservatives cheered him for trying to reaffirm traditional Catholic identity, his critics accused him of turning back the clock on reforms by nearly half a century and hurting dialogue with Muslims, Jews and other Christians.

After appearing uncomfortable in the limelight at the start, he began feeling at home with his new job and showed that he intended to be pope in his way.

Despite great reverence for his charismatic, globe-trotting predecessor -- whom he put on the fast track to sainthood and whom he beatified in 2011 -- aides said he was determined not to change his quiet manner to imitate John Paul's style.

A quiet, professorial type who relaxed by playing the piano, he showed the gentle side of a man who was the Vatican's chief doctrinal enforcer for nearly a quarter of a century.

The first German pope for some 1,000 years and the second non-Italian in a row, he traveled regularly, making about four foreign trips a year, but never managed to draw the oceanic crowds of his predecessor.

The child abuse scandals hounded most of his papacy. He ordered an official inquiry into abuse in Ireland, which led to the resignation of several bishops.

Scandal from a source much closer to home hit in 2012 when the pontiff's butler, responsible for dressing him and bringing him meals, was found to be the source of leaked documents alleging corruption in the Vatican's business dealings.

Benedict confronted his own country's past when he visited the Nazi death camp at Auschwitz. Calling himself "a son of Germany", he prayed and asked why God was silent when 1.5 million victims, most of them Jews, were killed there.

Ratzinger served in the Hitler Youth during World War Two when membership was compulsory. He was never a member of the Nazi party and his family opposed Adolf Hitler's regime.

(Additional reporting by James Mackenzie, Barry Moody, Cristiano Corvino, Alexandra Hudson in Berlin, and Dagamara Leszkowixa in Poland; Editing by Peter Graff)

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Asian markets rise in quiet trade

HONG KONG: Asian markets rose in holiday-thinned trade on Tuesday, with Tokyo given a boost by a weaker yen while Sydney was at almost three-year highs as dealers grow confident in the global economic outlook.

With several regional markets still closed for Lunar New Year celebrations, trading was quiet, while dealers look ahead to a meeting of the Group of 20 top economic power at the end of the week.

Tokyo surged 2.43 per cent, Sydney added 0.17 per cent and Seoul gained 0.10 per cent.

Hong Kong, Shanghai, Taipei, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur were closed for public holidays.

Japanese shares were the big gainers as the yen tumbled against the dollar in New York on Monday after US Treasury official Lael Brainard praised Tokyo's efforts to boost growth and counter deflation.

Analysts say his comments indicate Washington will not support any criticism of Japan's recent monetary easing measures at the G20 meeting on Friday.

Tokyo's recent moves have stoked fears, especially in Europe, of a currency war between the major economies as policymakers seek to devalue their currencies to make exports more competitive.

The dollar stood at 94.28 yen in early Asian trade, from 94.33 yen in New York late Monday.

The euro fetched $1.3403 and 126.36 yen, compared with $1.3404 and 126.42 yen.

"(The dollar/yen) is back in the 94-yen levels," Yoshihiro Okumura, general manager of research at Chibagin Asset Management, told Dow Jones Newswires. "This is going to give a tailwind."

There was little direction from Wall Street, where the Dow fell 0.16 per cent and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended flat.

In electronic oil trading New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March, was down 15 cents to $96.88 a barrel in the morning, while Brent North Sea crude for March was up nine cents to $118.22.

Gold was at $1,643.10 at 0100 GMT.

- AFP/ck

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Kumbh stampede: Minister refutes callousness charge

NEW DELHI: The railways were caught off guard on Sunday after the Allahabad administration diverted a deluge of pilgrims towards the station complex which ultimately caused the stampede, sources said.

This happened all of a sudden as thousands of pilgrims poured in through the Civil Lines between 5pm and 6pm. It wasn't part of the plan shared with them and the railway authorities were stumped. In no time, the station complex was overflowing, platforms were packed, the foot overbridge and circulation area were teeming with jostling pilgrims.

A day after the stampede, a blame game began between the railways and the state government. The railways insisted they were kept in the dark on crowd management plans, but the administration blamed it on a lathicharge at the station. Railway minister Pawan Bansal, in Allahabad on Monday, strongly defended his department saying the stampede happened because of the rush and that all arrangements were in place. He denied a lathicharge triggered the panic.

Despite the railway effort to shift blame, one thing seems clear: It failed to estimate the likely crowd at the station. Not enough security men were at the station. Unlike CRPF, BSF and RAF, trained in crowd control, the Government Railway Police isn't . Allahabad can handle a maximum of 40,000 commuters at a time and it's now being asked why railway authorities allowed nearly 3lakh people to descend on its premises at a go. "Piligrims could have been diverted to smaller halts and informed about train movements over the public address system," Shiv Gopal Mishra, general secretary of the All India Railwaymen Federation said. Mishra was in Allahabad on Sunday.

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Pope shows lifetime jobs aren't always for life

The world seems surprised that an 85-year-old globe-trotting pope who just started tweeting wants to resign, but should it be? Maybe what should be surprising is that more leaders his age do not, considering the toll aging takes on bodies and minds amid a culture of constant communication and change.

There may be more behind the story of why Pope Benedict XVI decided to leave a job normally held for life. But the pontiff made it about age. He said the job called for "both strength of mind and body" and said his was deteriorating. He spoke of "today's world, subject to so many rapid changes," implying a difficulty keeping up despite his recent debut on Twitter.

"This seemed to me a very brave, courageous decision," especially because older people often don't recognize their own decline, said Dr. Seth Landefeld, an expert on aging and chairman of medicine at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Age has driven many leaders from jobs that used to be for life — Supreme Court justices, monarchs and other heads of state. As lifetimes expand, the woes of old age are catching up with more in seats of power. Some are choosing to step down rather than suffer long declines and disabilities as the pope's last predecessor did.

Since 1955, only one U.S. Supreme Court justice — Chief Justice William Rehnquist — has died in office. Twenty-one others chose to retire, the most recent being John Paul Stevens, who stepped down in 2010 at age 90.

When Thurgood Marshall stepped down in 1991 at the age of 82, citing health reasons, the Supreme Court justice's answer was blunt: "What's wrong with me? I'm old. I'm getting old and falling apart."

One in 5 U.S. senators is 70 or older, and some have retired rather than seek new terms, such as Hawaii's Daniel Akaka, who left office in January at age 88.

The Netherlands' Queen Beatrix, who just turned 75, recently said she will pass the crown to a son and put the country "in the hands of a new generation."

In Germany, where the pope was born, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is 58, said the pope's decision that he was no longer fit for the job "earns my very highest respect."

"In our time of ever-lengthening life, many people will be able to understand how the pope as well has to deal with the burdens of aging," she told reporters in Berlin.

Experts on aging agreed.

"People's mental capacities in their 80s and 90s aren't what they were in their 40s and 50s. Their short-term memory is often not as good, their ability to think quickly on their feet, to execute decisions is often not as good," Landefeld said. Change is tougher to handle with age, and leaders like popes and presidents face "extraordinary demands that would tax anybody's physical and mental stamina."

Dr. Barbara Messinger-Rapport, geriatrics chief at the Cleveland Clinic, noted that half of people 85 and older in developed countries have some dementia, usually Alzheimer's. Even without such a disease, "it takes longer to make decisions, it takes longer to learn new things," she said.

But that's far from universal, said Dr. Thomas Perls, an expert on aging at Boston University and director of the New England Centenarians Study.

"Usually a man who is entirely healthy in his early 80s has demonstrated his survival prowess" and can live much longer, he said. People of privilege have better odds because they have access to good food and health care, and tend to lead clean lives.

"Even in the 1500s and 1600s there were popes in their 80s. It's remarkable. That would be today's centenarians," Perls said.

Arizona Sen. John McCain turned 71 while running for president in 2007. Had he won, he would have been the oldest person elected to a first term as president. Ronald Reagan was days away from turning 70 when he started his first term as president in 1981; he won re-election in 1984. Vice President Joe Biden just turned 70.

In the U.S. Senate, where seniority is rewarded and revered, South Carolina's Strom Thurmond didn't retire until age 100 in 2002. Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia was the longest-serving senator when he died in office at 92 in 2010.

Now the oldest U.S. senator is 89-year-old Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey. The oldest congressman is Ralph Hall of Texas who turns 90 in May.

The legendary Alan Greenspan was about to turn 80 when he retired as chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006; he still works as a consultant.

Elsewhere around the world, Cuba's Fidel Castro — one of the world's longest serving heads of state — stepped down in 2006 at age 79 due to an intestinal illness that nearly killed him, handing power to his younger brother Raul. But the island is an example of aged leaders pushing on well into their dotage. Raul Castro now is 81 and his two top lieutenants are also octogenarians. Later this month, he is expected to be named to a new, five-year term as president.

Other leaders who are still working:

—England's Queen Elizabeth, 86.

—Abdullah bin Abd al-Aziz al-Saud, king of Saudi Arabia, 88.

—Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, emir of Kuwait, 83.

—Ruth Bader Ginsburg, U.S. Supreme Court associate justice, 79.

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Associated Press writers Paul Haven in Havana, Cuba; David Rising in Berlin; Seth Borenstein, Mark Sherman and Matt Yancey in Washington, and researcher Judy Ausuebel in New York contributed to this report.

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Marilynn Marchione can be followed at http://twitter.com/MMarchioneAP

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Who's Next? A Look at Likely Successors to Benedict

With 1 billion Catholics worldwide, the face of the church is changing.

It's something the cardinal electors may keep in mind when the conclave to elect a new pontiff begins in late March, said Matthew Bunson, general editor of the Catholic Almanac and author of "We Have a Pope! Benedict XVI."

RELATED: Pope Benedict XVI Resigns: The Statement

The 117 cardinals who are eligible to vote for the new pontiff hail from approximately 50 different countries, and they almost always elect one of their own.

Joseph Ratzinger, an intellectual and respected cardinal from Germany, was the frontrunner for the papacy in 2005, Bunson said. When elected, he became Pope Benedict XVI.

This year, there are no strong favorites.

"The door, in a way, is very much open," Bunson said.

FULL COVERAGE: Pope Benedict XVI Resignation

Here's a quick look at some of the possible picks for pope:

Angelo Cardinal Scola, 71, Italy

Scola was named the Archbishop of Milan in 2011, a prominent post in the Roman Catholic church.

"If we had to pick a frontrunner, it's him," Bunson said. "He first is a brilliant theologian and has the intellectual heft to be pope, which is crucial. He has the clear favor of Pope Benedict.

Milan and Venice together have produced five popes in the past century.

Scola is also committed to promoting an understanding across faiths.

He started the Oasis Foundation in 2004, which helps bridge a dialogue between Christians and Muslims.

Helen Alvaré, a professor of law at George Mason University and an advisor to Pope Benedict XVI's Pontifical Council for the Laity, agreed that Scola will be considered papabili -- an Italian word for someone highly qualified for the papacy.

"It would not be surprise me if a Scola, or another great European mind also was determined to be what was needed for the times," she said.

Marc Cardinal Ouellet, 68, Canada

The former Archbishop of Quebec, who now heads the Congregation of Bishops, has a deep knowledge of the global workings of the church, Bunson said.

"He has had a major role in the appointment of the church's leaders around the world," Bunson said.

And he points out that at 68 years old, Ouellet has age on his side.

Ouellet is someone who could have "worldwide reach," Alvaré said.

"The man who is chosen for the position he has is someone who is understood to have the presence and the future of the church in mind," she said.

Peter Cardinal Turkson, 64, Ghana

Turkson, who hails from Ghana, may be in the running.

He is currently the president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, a post he was appointed to by Pope Benedict XVI in 2009.

The job has sent Turkson, who speaks six languages, around the world to handle mediations.

"The fact that an African cardinal is a candidate to be elected pope is the statement to the diversity of the church and the remarkable growth around the world," Bunson said.

Turkson discussed the possible of a black pope at a press conference in 2009, following the U.S. presidential election.

"And if by divine providence -- because the church belongs to God -- if God would wish to see a black man also as Pope, thanks be to God," he said.

Francis Cardinal Arinze, from Nigeria, has also been discussed as a potential pope.

Leonardo Cardinal Sandri, 69, Argentina

With a large center of Catholic faithful in Latin America, Sandri could become the first pope from the region.

The 69-year-old, who was born in Argentina to Italian parents, served as a chief of staff in the Vatican, often reading public message when Pope John Paul II was in declining health.

It was Sandri who announced the passing of the pontiff in St. Peter's Square on April 2, 2005.

"He's well-liked around the world," Bunson said.

He currently serves on the Congregation for the Oriental Churches, acting as a liason with Eastern European Catholic churches.

Sandri is fluent in English, Spanish, Italian, German and French.

Angelo Cardinal Bagnasco, 70, Italy

The Archbishop of Genoa has a "reputation for intellectual heft," Bunson said.

Bagnasco, two-time president of the Italian Bishops Conference, has a history of taking a strong stance on church doctrine.

In 2007, he was the subject of death threats after he led a campaign against proposed Italian legislation to grant some legal rights to unmarried couples, including people in same-sex relationships.

Italians form the largest voting block in the College of Cardinals, with 25 percent of the seats, and could help propel Bagnasco into the papacy.

Tarsicio Cardinal Bertone, 78, Italy

The current Cardinal Secretary of State is a strong candidate if the Holy Spirit wants another great European mind at the helm of the church, Alvaré said.

Bertone runs the day-to-day business of the Roman Curia, the Vatican's government.

He has reportedly been criticized by Vatican officials for his handling of issues ranging from sexual abuse in the church to Vatican finances.

In an open letter last year, Pope Benedict XVI acknowledged the in-fighting and pledged his support for his secretary of state.

"I've noted with regret the unjust criticism directed at your person," the pope wrote. "I intend to reaffirm my pledge of personal faith in you."

Although he's held in high regard by the pope, Bunson believes Bertone's age will keep him from the papacy.

"His age is against him," he said, pointing out that Bertone is the same age as his boss when he was elected.

Timothy Cardinal Dolan, 63, New York

While the thought of an American pope has long seemed impossible, Cardinal Dolan should not be ruled out, Alvaré said.

"History is changing," she said. "We've been at this a while here in the states, [although] not anywhere as long as Europe."

Dolan, an affable cardinal well-known by Catholics in the U.S. and abroad, "has been grappling with some of the leading questions that face the church for the future," Alvaré said.

In September 2012, along with comedian Stephen Colbert, he co-led a discussion on faith and humor at Fordham University.

"If I am elected pope, which is probably the greatest gag all evening, I'll be Stephen III," he told the crowd of students.

Despite Dolan's good standing, Bunson said he has some doubts.

"It strikes me as unlikely, simply because we are the world's last superpower," he said of the U.S. "So I think that might factor in."

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Gunbattle rocks Gao after rebels surprise French, Malians

GAO, Mali (Reuters) - Islamist insurgents launched a surprise raid in the heart of the Malian town of Gao on Sunday, battling French and local troops in a blow to efforts to secure Mali's recaptured north.

Local residents hid in their homes or crouched behind walls as the crackle of gunfire from running street battles resounded through the sandy streets and mud-brick houses of the ancient Niger River town, retaken from Islamist rebels last month by a French-led offensive.

French helicopters clattered overhead and fired on al Qaeda-allied rebels armed with AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades who had infiltrated the central market area and holed up in a police station, Malian and French officers said.

The fighting inside Gao was certain to raise fears that pockets of determined Islamists who have escaped the lightning four-week-old French intervention in Mali will strike back with guerrilla attacks and suicide bombings.

After driving the bulk of the insurgents from major northern towns such as Timbuktu and Gao, French forces are trying to search out their bases in the remote and rugged Adrar des Ifoghas mountains, far up in the northeast.

But with Mali's weak army unable to secure recaptured zones, and the deployment of a larger African security force slowed by delays and kit shortages, vast areas to the rear of the French forward lines now look vulnerable to guerrilla activity.

"They infiltrated the town via the river. We think there were about 10 of them. They were identified by the population and they went into the police station," said General Bernard Barrera, commander of French ground operations in Mali.

He told reporters in Gao that French helicopters had intervened to help Malian troops pinned down by the rebels, who threw grenades from rooftops.

Malian gendarme Colonel Saliou Maiga told Reuters the insurgents intended to carry out suicide attacks in the town.

SUICIDE BOMBERS

No casualty toll was immediately available. But a Reuters reporter in Gao saw one body crumpled over a motorcycle. Malian soldiers said some of the raiders may have come on motorbikes.

The gunfire in Gao erupted hours after French and Malian forces reinforced a checkpoint on the northern outskirts that had been attacked for the second time in two days by a suicide bomber.

Abdoul Abdoulaye Sidibe, a Malian parliamentarian from Gao, said the rebel infiltrators were from the MUJWA group that had held the town until French forces liberated it late last month.

MUJWA is a splinter faction of al Qaeda's North African wing AQIM which, in loose alliance with the home-grown Malian Islamist group Ansar Dine, held Mali's main northern urban areas for 10 months until the French offensive drove them out.

Late on Saturday, an army checkpoint in Gao's northern outskirts came under attack by a group of Islamist rebels who fired from a road and bridge that lead north through the desert scrub by the Niger River to Bourem, 80 km (50 miles) away.

"Our soldiers came under heavy gunfire from jihadists from the bridge ... At the same time, another one flanked round and jumped over the wall. He was able to set off his suicide belt," Malian Captain Sidiki Diarra told reporters.

The bomber died and one Malian soldier was lightly wounded, he added. In Friday's motorbike suicide bomber attack, a Malian soldier was also injured.

Diarra described Saturday's bomber as a bearded Arab.

Since Gao and the UNESCO World Heritage city of Timbuktu were retaken last month, several Malian soldiers have been killed in landmine explosions on a main road leading north.

French and Malian officers say pockets of rebels are still in the bush and desert between major towns and pose a threat of hit-and-run guerrilla raids and bombings.

"We are in a dangerous zone... we can't be everywhere," a French officer told reporters, asking not to be named.

One local resident reported seeing a group of 10 armed Islamist fighters at Batel, just 10 km (6 miles) from Gao.

OPERATIONS IN NORTHEAST

The French, who have around 4,000 troops in Mali, are now focusing their offensive operations several hundred kilometers (miles) north of Gao in a hunt for the Islamist insurgents.

On Friday, French special forces paratroopers seized the airstrip and town of Tessalit, near the Algerian border.

From here, the French, aided by around 1,000 Chadian troops in the northeast Kidal region, are expected to conduct combat patrols into the Adrar des Ifoghas mountains.

The remaining Islamists are believed to have hideouts and supply depots in a rugged, sun-blasted range of rocky gullies and caves, and are also thought to be holding at least seven French hostages previously seized in the Sahel.

The U.S. and European governments back the French-led operation as a defense against Islamist jihadists threatening wider attacks, but rule out sending their own combat troops.

To accompany the military offensive, France and its allies are urging Mali authorities to open a national reconciliation dialogue that addresses the pro-autonomy grievances of northern communities like the Tuaregs, and to hold democratic elections.

Interim President Dioncounda Traore, appointed after a military coup last year that plunged the West African state into chaos and led to the Islamist occupation of the north, has said he intends to hold elections by July 31.

But he faces splits within the divided Malian army, where rival units are still at loggerheads.

(Additional reporting by Tiemoko Diallo and Adama Diarra in Bamako; Writing by Joe Bavier and Pascal Fletcher; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

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Adele wins best pop solo performance Grammy

LOS ANGELES: British songstress Adele won the Grammy for best pop solo performance, the first award handed out during the main event on the music industry's biggest night of the year.

The 24-year-old singer, who swept the board with six Grammys at last year's awards show, took the prize for a live rendition of her hit "Set Fire to the Rain."

"My good luck charm, J-Lo," she said as she accepted the award from Jennifer Lopez and Pitbull. "This is amazing. I wanted to come and be part of the night. I loved it last year, obviously," she added.

Last year she won best song, best record, best album for her breakthrough "21," best short video, best pop album and best pop artist, winning all six categories in which she was nominated.

Indie pop band fun. won best song for "We Are Young," one of six categories in which they were nominated at music's biggest awards show.

The New York group are also shortlisted for the key categories of best record, best album and best new artist at the 55th Grammys Awards.

- AFP/ir

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Omar apprehends further Kashmiri alienation

SRINAGAR: Jammu & Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah on Sunday warned that the execution of Parliament attack convict Mohammad Afzal Guru would lead to the further alienation of Kashmiris from the Indian mainstream — especially when the killers of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi and Punjab chief minister Beant Singh were still alive.

Omar said he had told various UPA leaders in the past that hanging Afzal would lead to a strong backlash from the state's people.

Unhappy at the manner in which the UPA government went about the execution, the head of the Congress-National Conference coalition government hinted that New Delhi carried out the death penalty with an eye on future elections.

The chief minister, who spoke to various national news channels, said not informing Afzal's family about his hanging showed that even basic humanitarian norms were not observed in his case. He asked the Centre to hand over Afzal's body to his family for the last rites.

Omar even questioned the Supreme Court verdict against the convict. "Afzal was awarded death sentence on [the basis of] circumstantial evidence rather than facts ... provided before the court," he said. He said the Centre should have provided a lawyer to Afzal. "If it was not possible for them to provide the lawyer in Delhi, a lawyer should have gone from here to plead for Guru," he said.

The CM criticized the home ministry's statement that Afzal's family was informed through Speed Post about the rejection of his clemency petition by the president. "Do you expect such kind of communication to be sent through Speed Post in the internet age?" he said.

Meanwhile, the Kashmir valley was by and large peaceful on Sunday, though there were reports of some incidents of violence in Sopore and Baramulla in north Kashmir. But internet services and local cable networks continued to remain suspended.

No local or national newspaper was available in the Valley on Sunday. While national newspapers could not reach the stands due to continued curfew, local newspapers could not be published due to police instructions. The newspaper owners accused the authorities of denying them permission to publish on Saturday evening.

"A police team arrived at the printing press and asked the management late in the night at 12 o'clock not to publish the newspaper for Sunday," read a post of Greater Kashmir, the largest circulated daily in J&K. "Though no written orders were issued to the media groups.... ." Journalists working with Greater Kashmir said they had completed the edition and left home on Saturday night, but found on Sunday morning that the authorities had imposed a ban on the publication of newspapers in the state.

Apparently, newspaper managements were verbally told not to publish. Official, however, expressed ignorance over any such police action.

Scattered protests, one dies in Ganderbal

A youth, Tariq Ahmad Bhat, died in Ganderbal district when people protesting the hanging of Afzal Guru clashed with security forces on Sunday. According to a senior police officer, Bhat drowned after the security forces gave chase to a violent group of youngsters near the Sumbal area in Ganderbal district.

Major towns in the Valley remained under curfew for a second day. Still, mobs of hundreds of youths hurled stones on security forces in Bandipora, Sopore and Baramulla in north Kashmir. By and large, the police said, the situation remained normal. There were isolated incidents of stone-pelting at different places, a police spokesman said. Four police personnel were injured, one of them seriously.

According to reports, youths threw stones at over a dozen places in the evening soon after the authorities removed the security deployment from areas such as Rawalpora, Raj Bagh and Barazulla in Srinagar.

Both factions of the Hurriyat have called for a three-day general strike across the Valley to protest Afzal's hanging.

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After early start, worst of flu season may be over

NEW YORK (AP) — The worst of the flu season appears to be over.

The number of states reporting intense or widespread illnesses dropped again last week, and in a few states there was very little flu going around, U.S. health officials said Friday.

The season started earlier than normal, first in the Southeast and then spreading. But now, by some measures, flu activity has been ebbing for at least four weeks in much of the country. Flu and pneumonia deaths also dropped the last two weeks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported.

"It's likely that the worst of the current flu season is over," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said.

But flu is hard to predict, he and others stressed, and there have been spikes late in the season in the past.

For now, states like Georgia and New York — where doctor's offices were jammed a few weeks ago — are reporting low flu activity. The hot spots are now the West Coast and the Southwest.

Among the places that have seen a drop: Lehigh Valley Hospital-Cedar Crest in Allentown, Pa., which put up a tent outside its emergency room last month to help deal with the steady stream of patients. There were about 100 patients each day back then. Now it's down to 25 and the hospital may pack up its tent next week, said Terry Burger, director of infection control and prevention for the hospital.

"There's no question that we're seeing a decline," she said.

In early December, CDC officials announced flu season had arrived, a month earlier than usual. They were worried, saying it had been nine years since a winter flu season started like this one. That was 2003-04 — one of the deadliest seasons in the past 35 years, with more than 48,000 deaths.

Like this year, the major flu strain was one that tends to make people sicker, especially the elderly, who are most vulnerable to flu and its complications

But back then, that year's flu vaccine wasn't made to protect against that bug, and fewer people got flu shots. The vaccine is reformulated almost every year, and the CDC has said this year's vaccine is a good match to the types that are circulating. A preliminary CDC study showed it is about 60 percent effective, which is close to the average.

So far, the season has been labeled moderately severe.

Like others, Lehigh Valley's Burger was cautious about making predictions. "I'm not certain we're completely out of the woods," with more wintry weather ahead and people likely to be packed indoors where flu can spread around, she said.

The government does not keep a running tally of flu-related deaths in adults, but has received reports of 59 deaths in children. The most — nine — were in Texas, where flu activity was still high last week. Roughly 100 children die in an average flu season, the CDC says

On average, about 24,000 Americans die each flu season, according to the CDC.

According to the CDC report, the number of states with intense activity is down to 19, from 24 the previous week, and flu is widespread in 38 states, down from 42.

Flu is now minimal in Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

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Online:

CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/

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